Recent data suggest the global recession is nearing an end, but constraints on growth persist.

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nomura+120609

The stimulus plan seems to be gaining traction. Industrial output growth is recovering and lending to construction has picked up. Inflation continues to fall. The external environment remains weak and a sizeable monthly trade deficit has re-emerged. Growth should rise going forward, but will remain well below trend.

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ANZ+Vietnam+Economics+Monthly+-+June+2009

The ruling Communist Party of Vietnam will maintain its tight grip on power in 2009-10, rejecting calls (especially from groups of overseas Vietnamese) for political pluralism. The government!s fiscal stimulus package includes spending on infrastructure, tax breaks and a delay in the implementation of the new personal income tax regime. As inflation is continuing to ease, the State Bank of Vietnam (the central bank) is likely to keep policy interest rates low in 2009-10. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the economy will grow by 2.1% this year, before picking up in 2010, to 4.9%.

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EIU-VN-Country-Forecast-2009-06

The global financial crisis and economic downturn has generated new challenges for the Vietnamese government, forcing policymakers to shift their focus from containing inflation to supporting economic growth. The government !s fiscal stimulus is estimated to be worth under US$4bn by the IMF (estimates vary dramatically; the government!s fiscal accounting lacks credibility) and will go towards a raft of infrastructure projects as well as other measures that will help to boost growth.

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EIU-VN-Country-Report-2009-06+(2)

The ruling Communist Party of Vietnam will maintain its tight grip on power in 2009-10, rejecting calls (especially from groups of overseas Vietnamese) for political pluralism. The government!s fiscal stimulus package includes spending on infrastructure, tax breaks and a delay in the implementation of the new personal income tax regime. As inflation is continuing to ease, the State Bank of Vietnam (the central bank) is likely to keep policy interest rates low in 2009-10.

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GDP growth likely troughed in 1Q, but re-acceleration will be relatively modest. A shallower downturn means we have raised 2009 GDP growth from 2% to 4%. But 2010 GDP is still seen as low-key until exports and domestic investment see a more material recovery. The shakiness of Vietnam’s fundamentals will raise ongoing concerns, but the risk of a financial crisis of some sort continues to recede, in our view. Recurring fears for balance of payments (BoP) instability or a currency collapse seem entrenched among some investors, but such concerns are outdated.
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Us Vietnam Trade and Investment Framework Agreement
Us Vietnam Trade and Investment Framework Agreement

Emerging Markets Vietnam

Emerging Markets Vietnam

This document made by KPMG 2007
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